I think you have some good ideas here. It seems to me that support for each release drops off rather dramatically. Our oldest supported release is currently 3.8 which was first released about 1 year ago!
Right now I believe a release is only supported as long as we have a maintainer willing to do the work.
Assuming an LTS release has 2 years of support, let's look at the following scenario:
2013.04 ( LTS ) - Supported for 2 years, until the release of version 2015.04
2013.10 - Supported until the release of 2014.10
2014.04 - Supported until the release of 2015.04
2014.10 - Supported until the release of 2015.10, support for 2013.10 ends
2015.04 ( LTS ) - Supported until 2017.04, support for 2013.04 (LTS ) and 2014.04 ends.
So with this system, we would need 3 release maintainers at any given time, right? 1 for LTS and 2 for non-LTS releases.
Here is the same scenario with Paul's prefered numbering system:
12.x ( LTS ) - Supported for 2 years, until the release of version 16.x
13.x - Supported until the release of 15.x
14.x - Supported until the release of 16.x
15.x - Supported until the release of 17.x, support for 13.x ends
16.x ( LTS ) - Supported until 20.x, support for 12.x (LTS) and 14.x ends.
I think Paul's proposal is certainly more grokable than my Ubuntu style as well. To get the support sunset for an LTS release, add 4 to it. To get the support sunset for a non-LTS release, just add 2.
Kyle